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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.